Unknown Unknowns

What do Christopher Columbus, Alexander Fleming, and Dr. Katalin Karikó have in common? And perhaps — you, too?

None of them found what they initially set out to look for. Columbus wanted to reach India — and discovered a continent that appeared on no map (“America”). Fleming was researching bacteria — and discovered mold that would go on to save millions (the discovery of penicillin). And Karikó? She set out to understand “marginal” molecules — and uncovered the scientific foundation for the mRNA vaccines that carried the world through the COVID-19 pandemic.

And you? Where are your unknown unknowns hiding? Which signals are you dismissing as noise when they might be pointing toward a different reality altogether? In an era of mental overload and information saturation, it’s easy to believe (or perhaps prefer to assume) that everything is already known, already mapped. But personal, professional, or collective breakthroughs often come from the margins — from anomalies, disruptions, or side paths we didn’t plan to take.

Some background

In 2002, U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld said something that instantly became a strange but unforgettable quote:

"There are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns... But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know."

Many mocked him. In 2003, Rumsfeld was awarded the Foot in Mouth Award, a satirical prize given by the Plain English Campaign, which promotes clear and straightforward communication, for making a public statement that was confusing, convoluted, and, in their view, nonsensical. But some recognized in it a profound insight.

Almost a decade earlier, philosopher Ann Kerwin proposed a framework for thinking about how we relate to knowledge (Kerwin, 1993). In her article, she described four categories of awareness—helping us understand not only what we know, but how we handle what we don’t know. Her framework is not merely a philosophical exercise—it’s a practical tool for navigating complex realities. While Rumsfeld’s version gained global attention, Kerwin’s model preceded it, though his statement helped popularize the idea.

The Known–Unknown Matrix

Kerwin’s model can be described as a four-part matrix:

Each quadrant has its own story:

Quadrant 1 – Known-Knowns. Things we are confident about and know how to act upon: facts, skills, procedures.

Quadrant 2 – Known-Unknowns. Gaps we are aware of: open questions, anticipated risks, unknown variables that need investigation.

Quadrant 3 – Unknown-Knowns. Knowledge we possess but don’t recognize as such. Often rooted in experience, habits, or intuition. For example:

• A manager who makes excellent hiring decisions based on intuition formed through years of undocumented experience, without being able to explain the exact source.

• A team that performs exceptionally well during a crisis thanks to unspoken norms developed over time.

Quadrant 4 – Unknown-Unknowns. Blind spots: risks or insights we haven’t even imagined.

Where does this meet us in our lives?

We experience this matrix in our daily lives. In the business world, launching a product without marketing validation is a conscious encounter with unknown information (Known Unknowns). Ignoring customer feedback that doesn’t align with your roadmap? That’s a classic case of unchosen bias (Unknown Knowns). A new competitor emerges from a space you thought irrelevant? That’s a surprise from the Unknown Unknowns.

In our personal lives, you know your daily schedule (Known Knowns). You know you need to learn how to ask for help (Known Unknowns). You’ve noticed that your tone of voice affects others (Unknown Knowns). You may have experienced a life-changing event or one that fundamentally shifted your perspective (Unknown Unknowns).

Let's dive into Unknown unknowns

The fourth quadrant, the Unknown-Unknowns, is the most intriguing to me. The realm of pure ignorance. Surprisingly, we can talk about it, ask questions about it, try to identify it—and maybe even begin to break it down.

One iconic cinematic moment that resonates with this framework comes from The Matrix (1999). When Morpheus offers Neo the choice between the blue pill and the red pill, he’s offering awareness of the unknown (UU), a willingness to confront a reality Neo doesn’t even realize he’s blind to. It’s a dramatic example of how stepping into the unknown can reshape everything we think we understand.

Most of us make decisions based on the knowledge we already have (under conditions of certainty), and sometimes under uncertainty—drawing on estimates related to what we know we don’t know. But often, the biggest challenges, decisions, and opportunities don’t emerge from what’s known—they break through from blind spots, from places that weren’t even on the radar.

In such conditions, rational thinking, data analysis, or even deep expertise are not always enough. To operate in a space of radical uncertainty, we need to develop other tools: curiosity, humility, tolerance for ambiguity—and sometimes, imagination. Leaders, entrepreneurs, and researchers working at the frontier don’t just solve difficult problems—they discover entire territories they didn’t know existed.

Few Cents

A few cents from the coaching room—Next time you’re facing a tough decision, ask yourself:

• What do I know?

• What do I know that I don’t know?

• What might I be ignoring, even though I actually know it?

• And what could be out there—that I don’t even know I don’t know?

Sometimes, the path to “what’s next” doesn’t lie in acquiring more knowledge—but in understanding what we still don’t see.

Donald Henry Rumsfeld (July 9, 1932 – June 29, 2021)

References

1. Kerwin, A. (1993). None Too Solid: Medical Ignorance. Knowledge, 15(2), 166-185. https://doi.org/10.1177/107554709301500204 (Original work published 1993)

2. Donald Rumsfeld Video